考虑多元化水平与排放约束的发电结构模拟

摘要

在先进的化石与非化石燃料发电技术逐步进入可竞争的发展阶段背景下,研究发电结构演变及其对能源消费总量与排放的影响已成为能源系统模拟的一个关键领域.为了研究技术、经济与环境约束之下的发电技术最优组合,构建了一个考虑多元化水平与排放约束的发电结构变化的模拟工具,分析不同条件下的最优化组合方案,研究成本、多元化水平与排放之间的相互影响.预测结果可为政策制定者提供参考.%Given that advanced technologies for both fossil and non-fossil fuels power generation have gradually entered a new development stage where the two can compete against each other in market,studying the struetural evolution of the power generation structure and its influences on the total energy consumption and emission;has become a priority in the field of ceergy system modeling, particularly for a transitional ceonomy like China.In this paper an optiminizntion tool is developed and implemented to simulate the optimal porlfolio of power generation technologies with the constraints on technological,economical.and environmental perfortnance.Various scenarios are designed and compared to illustrate the inleractions among cost.diversily,and emissions.Results can make a referemce to the government policy-making.