经济新常态下江苏省电力需求分析研究

摘要

经济新常态下,拉动江苏省经济增长的主导因素由第二产业转变为第三产业及消费,江苏省电力需求也发生较大变化.为准确把握经济新常态下江苏电力需求走势,对“十二五”以来江苏电力消费特点进行了总结分析,主要表现在电力弹性系数呈现下降趋势,以及江苏省南部、中部和北部3个典型地区之间电量增速差异显著,南部、中部地区电量呈现较高增速,北部地区增速较低.在此基础上,对经济新常态下江苏省电力需求进行了展望,预计“十三五”期间江苏省全社会用电量增速约为5.1％,江苏省南部、中部和北部地区用电增速分别为5.7％、6.2％和2.9％.%Under China's new normal,the driving factors for Jiangsu Province's economic growth have shifted from the secondary industry to the tertiary industry and consumption.Jiangsu Province's power demand has also undergone significant changes.In order to accurately predict the new trend of electricity demand of Jiangsu Province,this paper analyzes the power consumption characteristics of Jiangsu Province since the 12th Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015),which is mainly manifested in the declining trend of power elasticity coefficient and the significant difference in power consumption growth among three typical regions in southern,middle and northern Jiangsu Province.The electricity consumption of the southern and middle regions shows a high growth rate,while the northern region has a low growth rate.A forecasting is made on the electricity demand of Jiangsu Province under China's new normal.It is predicted that the total electricity consumption growth rate of Jiangsu Province will be about 5.1％ during the 13th Five-Year Plan period (2016-2020),and the southern,middle and northern regions will have an electricity consumption growth rate of 5.7％,6.2％ and 2.9％,respectively.