随着中国经济进入新常态,全社会用电量增速低于GDP增速,部分年份二者差异较大.建立了全社会用电量与GDP增速差距测算模型,主要由结构效应、单耗效应、居民效应3部分组成.该模型能够全面、科学测算全社会用电量与GDP增速差距的具体构成以及造成二者差距的主要原因.2012-2016年,中国全社会用电量增速比GDP增速分别低2.3、0.2、3.2、5.9和1.8个百分点,其中单耗效应使全社会用电量增速比GDP增速分别低2.7、0.4、1.9、4.9、1.5个百分点,结构效应使前者比后者分别提高0.1、0.1、-0.6、-0.8、-0.8个百分点,居民效应使前者比后者分别提高0.3、0.1、-0.7、-0.2、0.5个百分点.测算结果表明,单耗效应是导致全社会用电量增速低于GDP增速的主要原因.%Since China's economy entered a new normal,the growth rate of total electricity consumption has been lower than that of GDP,and in some years,their difference is large.A model is established in this paper for calculating the difference between the electricity consumption and GDP growth rate,which is mainly composed of structure effect,intensity effect and residential effect.The model can comprehensively and scientifically measure the specific compositions of the gap between the total electricity consumption and GDP growth rate and analyze the main reasons for their gap.It is found through the model calculation that the total electricity consumption growth rate from the year 2012 to 2016 is lower than that of GDP by 2.3,0.2,3.2,5.9 and 1.8 percentage points,respectively,of which the intensity effect makes the total electricity consumption growth rate lower than that of GDP by 2.7,0.4,1.9,4.9 and 1.5 percentage points respectively,while the structure effect makes the electricity consumption growth rate 0.1 higher,0.1 higher,0.6 lower,0.8 lower and 0.8 lower than the GDP growth rate in percentage points,respectively,and the residential effect makes the electricity consumption growth rate 0.3 higher,0.1 higher,0.7 lower,0.2 lower,0.5 higher than the GDP growth rate in percentage points,respectively.The calculation results show that the intensity effect is the key reason for the total electricity consumption growth rate being lower than that of GDP.
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