地方政府债务可持续性研究

摘要

本文基于一个分析框架，构建地方政府债务可持续模型，利用1997-2012年数据，估算样本区域2012年地方政府债务的最优规模与实际规模。结果发现，目前地方政府债务均具有可持续性；政府债务实际规模呈现“东高西低”的特征，最优规模不具有这种特征；债务逾期率则呈现“西高东低”的特征，但样本区域仍处于安全值内。地方政府债务融资仍具有一定空间，但须加强监管。%Based on an analytic framework to build a sustainability model of local government debts, data of 1997 -2012 are used to estimate the optimal size and actual size of local government debts in the sample area of 2012.It is found that the current local government debts are sustainable.The eastern region is higher than the western region in the actual size of gov-ernment debts, but not in the optimal size.Debt overdue ratio shows the western region is higher than the eastern region, but the sample region is still within the safe area value.There is still some room for local government debt financing, but supervi-sion needs to be strengthened.