中国农业要素的替代弹性：人力资本的作用及农业技术变迁

摘要

By using time series data , this paper explores the substitutional relations among different agricultural factors and discusses the resulting progress bias of agricultural technology .The results show that on the timeline , there is a long-term substitutional trend among all elements of material capital input to agriculture; Human capital increases land replacement by capital, and it has higher substitution elasticity than the use of chemical fertilizer , so its role should not be ignored.With the introduction of human capital , China's agricultural technology has changed its preference:from land intensiveness to power in-tensiveness of agricultural machinery and material capital intensiveness of fertilizers ;technological progress of agricultural ma-chinery is faster than technological progress of fertilizers .The skewness of technological progress is an economic-technological phenomenon associated with the growth stage of a large population without full development of agriculture .%本文利用时间序列数据探讨农业要素间的替代关系以及由此引发的关于农业技术进步偏向性的讨论。在时间轴上，农业投入物质资本的各要素之间存在长期替代趋势，人力资本提高了资本对土地的替代能力，且它对化肥施用的替代弹性较高，因而其作用不容忽视。引入人力资本前后，中国农业技术的偏向性发生了改变，从土地密集型逐步转向农业机械动力和化肥的物质资本密集型，而且农业机械动力的技术进步要快于化肥施用的技术进步。非技能偏态技术进步是与人口规模庞大且未获得充分发展的农业成长阶段相联系的一种经济技术现象。