促进经济增长的中国政府最优债务率测算

摘要

This article builds a cross period model to discuss the relationship between a nation's debt and its economic growth .Results of the theoretical analysis show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between a nation's debt and its economic growth, that is, under specific conditions, when a nation's debt ratio is below the optimal threshold , the debt in-crease has a promoting influence on the economic growth; on the contrary , when the debt ratio exceeds that threshold , the debt increase will just put constraints on the economic growth .Based on China's time series data, this article builds a regres-sion model to validate the inverted U-shaped relationship between public debt and economic growth , which finds that China's optimal public debt ratio of recent years is about 47%.The policy implication of the paper is that China's public debt is still within the optimal threshold , although in the long run China's public debt increasing space is limited , in the short run China's public debt definitely has increasing capacity for financial policy to bolster China 's slowing down economy .%通过构建跨期模型来探讨一国债务与经济增长的关系。理论分析表明，一国债务与经济增长之间存在倒U形关系，即在一定条件下，当一国的债务低于最优值时，提高债务对经济增长具有促进作用，而当债务超过这一最优值时，增加债务则对经济增长具有副作用。在理论分析的基础上，构建了线性时间序列模型，基于中国样本数据证实了中国政府债务与中国经济增长之间倒U形关系的存在，并测算出现阶段中国政府最优债务率约为47％。这一结论表明：中国政府债务目前尚处于合理范围，虽然长期来看中国政府债务的提升空间已不大，但短期内进一步提升的空间犹存，这为中国政府充分运用财政政策提升尚处于探底阶段的中国经济预留了政策空间。