动态货币政策、投资水平与企业价值波动

摘要

Loose monetary and tighten monetary policies are conducted alternately in China.However, there are few liter-atures about common effect of alternant loose monetary policies and tighten monetary policies on corporate output indicators , such as financial risk and operating performance.The paper chooses all the A shares listed companies from 2001 to 2012 as samples to do regression analysis.We divided this period into four alternant periods of loose monetary policies and tighten mo-netary policies.This paper revealed that the chances of business performance decline , financial crisis and corporate value de-cline will be greater during tighten monetary policy period in those corporations which obviously performed at high investment level during loose monetary policy period before , and vice versa.%我国货币政策松紧交替进行，但鲜有文献探讨宽松与紧缩交替的动态货币政策对企业风险、业绩等产出指标的共同影响作用。本文选取2001年至2012年A股上市公司为样本，将此期间划分为宽松与紧缩四个交替的货币政策时期。研究发现：货币政策宽松期（紧缩期）投资水平越高的企业，在货币政策紧缩期（宽松期）经营业绩下降越大（小），陷入财务危机的可能性越高（低），企业价值越低（高）。