信贷配给对农村地区贫困的门槛效应研究

摘要

Based on the internal logic interpretation of the effect of credit rationing on rural poverty, this paper uses the panel threshold model to make an in-depth analysis of the nonlinear interaction and regional differences of credit rationing on poverty in rural areas. The results are as follows:Reducing the degree of credit rationing is an effective way to relieve poverty in rural areas, and has significant threshold characteristics; With the extent of agricultural credit rationing shifting from the high level interval to the low range, the relationship between rural poverty and the degree of credit rationing exhibts a “U”shape change;The threshold effect of credit rationing on poverty in rural areas has regional characteristics; As the credit ra-tioning degree decreases in eastern rural areas, the poverty reduction effect of increasing the effective supply of credit gradually weakens;In central and western rural areas, with the extent of agricultural credit rationing shifting from the high level interval to the low range, the relationship between rural poverty and the extent of credit rationing exhibits an inverted “U” shape change.%基于信贷配给对农村贫困作用的内在逻辑，运用面板门槛模型剖析了信贷配给对农村地区贫困的非线性作用及其地区差异。研究发现：降低信贷配给程度是减缓农村地区贫困的有效途径，且具有显著的门槛特征；随着农业信贷配给程度由高水平区间向低水平区间的转换，农村地区贫困与信贷配给程度的关系呈“U”型变化；信贷配给对农村地区贫困的门槛效应具有明显的区域特征，东部农村地区随着信贷配给程度的降低，增加信贷有效供给的减贫效应逐渐变弱，中西部农村地区随着农业信贷配给程度由高水平区间向低水平区间的转换，农村贫困与信贷配给程度的关系呈倒“U”型变化。