2014年以来人民币一改以往总体升值的趋势性特征,出现了自2005年汇改后从未出现过的突变反转性持续贬值,这一罕见现象具有重要的典型性学术和现实研究价值,但已有文献对此所进行的分析较为零散初步.本文采用BVAR等方法对该问题进行深入系统的理论分析和实证检验,研究结论表明:2014年以来人民币汇率走势出现了贬值趋势性特征,而不是短暂回调.国际收支的变化和贬值预期的变化是人民币汇率贬值的直接原因,经济基本面因素对人民币汇率的影响经过国际收支和预期的传导来产生作用.人民币兑美元汇率与经济基本面、货币政策、市场预期以及国际收支因素之间存在长期均衡关系.上述结论对于进一步完善人民币汇率理论和丰富汇率管理经验等具有借鉴意义.%Since 2014 the trend of appreciation of RMB exchange rate has changed into a trend of continuous deprecia-tion,which is of important academic and realistic research value. On the basis of previous studies,we use the BVAR model to make a theoretical analysis and empirical test about it. The results show that since 2014 the RMB exchange rate depreciation is the trend characteristics,rather than a temporary pullback after the appreciation. The change of international payments and the expected depreciation are the direct causes of the devaluation of the RMB exchange rate since 2014. The influence of the eco-nomic fundamentals on the RMB exchange rate has been brought about though the change of international payments and the ex-pected depreciation. There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the economic funda-mentals,the monetary policy, market expectations and the international payments. The conclusion of this paper is of great sig-nificance to perfect RMB exchange rate theories and enrich management experience.
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