基于贝叶斯网络的舰用汽轮滑油泵可靠性定量分析

摘要

针对舰用主滑油系统汽轮滑油泵装置，系统研究其结构功能关系及典型的故障模式。基于系统3种典型故障的 FTA 模型，建立相应的贝叶斯网络模型进行可靠性定量分析。考虑到系统中存在的固有不确定性因素，对模型的条件概率进行合理修正，提高可靠性分析的准确性。运用贝叶斯网络精确推理算法，得出系统可靠性指标和模型中底事件的概率重要度。根据计算结果，分析得到影响系统可靠性较大的关键部件，这些部件需要加强备份和重点监控。%　　A systematical research on the steam turbine pump in naval lubricating oil systems is conduct⁃ed. Particularly,the structure and functional relationship between different components of the system,as well as its typical failure modes are investigated. In order to test the reliability of the system,a Bayesian Network is established based on the FTA model of three typical failure modes. Then,the conditional proba⁃bility table is corrected by considering the inherent uncertainties within the system. This modification im⁃proves the accuracy of the quantitative reliability analysis. Also,the reliability of the system and the impor⁃tance of root nodes are derived with the precise inference algorithm. The results reveal several critical com⁃ponents that need regular backups and focus monitoring. In brief,the proposed method can be employed to improve the general reliability of the system.