三峡库区地质灾害监测预警工程经济效益评估分析

摘要

地质灾害监测预警工程有效地保护了三峡库区人民生命财产安全和长江航运。为了衡量其发挥的经济效益,在界定三峡库区地质灾害监测预警工程投入产出边界的基础上,构建详细的投入产出指标体系,进而综合分析地质灾害的类型、特点、环境状况、时空特征等诸多因素,构建了三峡库区地质灾害监测预警工程经济效益的期望值与实际可能值评估模型与方法,并运用湖北省秭归县郭家坝镇头道河村张家湾滑坡的基本数据进行了实例分析。本研究成果可为三峡库区地质灾害监测预警及治理提供决策方法。%Geological disaster monitoring ＆ warning engineering effectively protects the safety of people＇s life and property and the Yangtze shipping in the three gorges reservoir area. In order to measure its economic benefits, based on defining the boundaries of input and output of geological disaster monitoring ＆ warning engineering in the three gorges reservoir area, this study constructs a set of detailed input and output index system. And then, according to the comprehensive analysis of the types, features, environmental conditions, and space-time characteristics of geological hazard, the evaluation models and methods of the expectation and actual possible value of economic benefits for the geological disaster monitoring ＆ warning engineering in the three gorges reservoir area is built, and using the basic data of Zhangjiawan landslide in Guojiaba Town, Zigui Conty as an example to be analyzed and tested. This research fruits can provide decision-making method for the geological disaster monitoring, warning and control in the three gorges reservoir area.