基于DEA方法的中国农业水资源利用效率研究

摘要

[目的]以我国各省市2008~2015年农业水资源利用效率为研究对象,探究我国农业水资源利用效率的规律与特点,并基于此提出促进农业水资源合理利用的建议.[方法]主要采用了文献研究法、统计分析法和数据包络分析(DEA)法.通过文献搜集我国各省市2008~2015年与农业水资源利用相关的数据,构建DEA模型,对我国近年来农业水资源利用效率进行评价.[结果]2008~2015年,我国农业水资源利用效率在0.80上下浮动.各省市农业水资源利用效率随时间变化趋势不同.甘肃和上海的农业水资源利用效率涨幅最大,年增长率分别为4.39%和2.74%;山西、 江西以及陕西省的农业水资源利用效率整体趋于下降;浙江、 湖南以及陕西和新疆的农业水资源利用效率有先上升后下降的特点,表现出明显的波动.此外,农业水资源利用效率区域分化明显.东部地区农业水资源利用效率一般高于0.80,中部地区位于0.60~0.80,西部地区农业水资源利用效率一般低于0.60.[结论]2008~2015年,我国农业水资源利用效率表现出一定的时间差异性和空间差异性.时间差异性:我国农业水资源利用效率一直处于较高水平并呈现逐年增长趋势,不同省份的农业水资源利用效率随时间变动趋势各异.空间差异性:东部地区农业水资源利用效率最高,中东部地区农业水资源利用效率甚至达到了最优,中部地区其次,西部省区农业水资源利用效率最低.农业水资源利用效率受当地政策、 经济发展水平、 农业发展水平、 水资源总量和人口压力等因素影响严重,今后应针对不同地区采取不同措施解决实际问题.%This paper explored the characteristics of agricultural water use efficiency in China from 2008 to 2015 , and put forward some suggestions to promote the rational utilization of agricultural water resources, using the litera-ture research method, the statistical analysis method and the data envelopment analysis ( DEA) method. It collect-ed the data related to the use of agricultural water resources in China from 2008 to 2015 , and constructed the DEA model to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural water use in recent years. The results showed that from 2008 to 2015, China's agricultural water use efficiency fluctuated around 0. 80. The use efficiency of agricultural water re-sources in different provinces and cities varies with time. Gansu, Jiangxi and Shaanxi provinces had the largest in-crease in agricultural water resources use efficiency, with annual growth rates of 4. 39% and 2. 74% respectively. The agricultural water use efficiency in Shanxi, Jiangxi and Shaanxi provinces tended to decline as a whole; Zhe-jiang, Hunan and agricultural water use efficiency increased first and then decline. In addition, the regional differ-entiation of agricultural water use efficiency was obvious. The agricultural water use efficiency was generally higher than 0. 80 in eastern China, 0. 60~0. 80 in the central region, and lower than 0. 60 in western China. It conclu-ded that from 2008 to 2015 , the agricultural water use efficiency showed a certain degree of time difference and spatial difference in China, which was mainly affected by local policy, economic development level, agricultural development level, total water resources and population pressure.