基于STIRPAT模型的农牧交错带草地面积变化影响因素分析——以宁夏回族自治区盐池县为例

摘要

The grassland area is decreased the most in Farming-pastoral Transitional Zone in China, which has caused a series of environmental problems. Taking Yanchi county of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region as the study area,the paper analyzed the influence factors of grassland change by STIRPAT model. The results were as follows:(1) The grassland area in Yanchi county decreased from 7 476 291.2 hm2in 1995 to 5 762 041.95 hm2in 2014. (2) The increase of population of Yanchi county was an important factor causing the decrease of grassland area. When the population of Yanchi county increased 1%,the grassland area would be reduced by 0.429 5%. (3) Ur-banization was another important factor affecting the decrease of grassland area. Under the same conditions, when the urbanization increased 1%,the grassland area would be reduced by 0.176 3%. (4) The influence of per capi-ta GDP on grassland area change weakened gradually; the third industry could effectively reduce the decrease of grassland area. (5) The coefficient of ln2A term of STIRPAT model was -0.001 3,which showed that there was a possibility of similar Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) between Yanchi county′s economic development and grassland area change,but there was no inflection point. The absolute value of added value of elastic coefficient (△EE) fluctuated upward showed that, with the development of economy, the grassland area of Yanchi county would be reduced in the future,and the contradiction between economic development and environment protection in Yanchi county was still serious. It concluded that due to the reasons of population,urbanization and per capita GDP increase,the grassland area in Yanchi county was decreased,and the increase of the proportion of the third indus-try would result in the increase of the grassland area in Yanchi county.%[目的] 农牧交错带是我国草地面积减少最为严重的区域,草地面积的变化引发了一系列环境问题,文章以宁夏回族自治区盐池县为研究区,对影响该区域草地面积变化的因素进行分析,以期为盐池县草地资源保护和社会经济可持续发展提供科学参考.[方法] 基于STIRPAT模型,该文选取1995~2014年盐池县草地面积与人口数量、城镇化率、人均GDP及第三产业比例等指标的时间序列数据,分析了草地面积与各指标之间的相关关系.[结果] 1995~2014年盐池县草地面积呈波动减少趋势;在影响草地面积变化的因素中,人口是影响盐池县草地面积减少的重要因素,城镇化是影响盐池县草地面积减少的另一重要因素,人均GDP对草地面积变化的影响在逐渐减弱,第三产业能有效减缓草地面积的减少;所得STIRPAT模型的ln2A项系数为-0.0013,表明盐池县经济发展与草地面积变化之间有可能存在类似环境Kuznets曲线的关系,但未出现拐点,而弹性系数增加值 (ΔEE) 的绝对值呈现波动上升趋势,表明随着经济的发展,盐池县草地面积有可能进一步减少,未来盐池县经济发展与环境之间的矛盾依然严峻.[结论] 研究揭示了人口、城镇化及人均GDP增加引起盐池县草地面积减少,第三产业比例提高引起盐池县草地面积增加的规律,分析了各影响因子对农牧交错带草地面积变化的影响机理及程度.