累积增长预测模型的典型曲线及应用

摘要

The forecast models can be divided intosingle-peak cycle models and cumulative growthmodels by the changes of oil production and cumu-lative oil production,with the former includingWeng model,Weibull model,Reyleigh model,Chen-Hao model and the generalized model,andthe latter including HCZ model and Hubbert mod-el.For the cumulative growth forecast models,a di-mensionless type curve and match method were de-veloped.By best matching between any dimension-less oilfield development data and the type curve,themodel constant can be obtained and used to forecastproduction and recoverable reserves of oilfields.Thepractical applications have shown that this type curveand match method are feasible and effective.%预测模型按产量和累积产量的变化特征可分为单峰周期模型和累积增长模型，前者包括翁氏模型、威布尔模型、瑞利模型、陈-郝模型和广义模型，后者包括HCZ模型和Hubbert模型。对于累积增长模型，提出了无因次典型曲线和拟合求解方法。通过无因次处理的油田实际开发数据与典型曲线的最佳拟合，可得到模型常数的数值，并用于对油田产量和可采储量的预测。实例应用表明，本文提供的累积增长预测模型典型曲线和拟合求解的方法是实用有效的。