基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程的机电装备动态可靠性评价方法

摘要

This paper focused on the operation and maintenance problems of electromechanical e-quipment,and proposed a new approach to assess the reliability and formulate the maintenance strate-gies based on POMDP theory.In the new approach,the dynamic reliability of electromechanical e-quipment was considered as an uncertain state which might be estimated by the monitoring informa-tions (such as noise,pressure,temperature,vibration,et al.)according to POMDP theory.Further-more,the influences of different maintenance strategies on reliability level of electromechanical equip-ment were investigated,and a dynamic reliability model was developed based on state transition.In order to plan the optimal maintenance strategy,an evaluation function was defined by minimizing the maintenance costs and the lost of faults.The experimental results confirm that the new approach based on POMDP is reasonable for electromechanical equipment,and possesses application and dis-semination values.%针对机电装备运行维护问题，提出了基于部分可观察马尔可夫决策过程(POMDP)理论的动态可靠性评价方法。该方法将可靠性动态演变看成POMDP 问题，通过不完全观测到的设备运行信息(如噪声、温度、压力等)，对可靠性状态进行估计，同时分析不同的维修行为对可靠性水平的影响规律，构建了基于状态转移的动态可靠性评价模型。然后，提出了以最小化维修成本费用和潜在故障危害为目标的维护策略制定方法，并通过案例分析验证了该方法的有效性，实现了机电装备动态可靠性的有效评价与维护策略的科学制订。