化工园区或厂区内,容器爆炸产生的碎片击中临近储罐或装置,可能会引发多米诺效应事故.本文系统分析了国内外有关爆炸碎片产生、飞行、击中及穿透破坏目标容器的相关文献,介绍了爆炸碎片产生阶段与飞行阶段相关随机变量参数的确定方法,以及击中、穿透破坏目标容器的概率模型等方面的研究方法、研究进展,对主要研究内容进行对比.指出碎片类型不全面、击中目标容器判定准则欠精确、目标容器破坏失效准则过于简化、缺乏对爆炸碎片产生概率的研究以及缺乏对目标容器破坏失效后果的研究等不足,提出安全附件等"小型碎片"随机参数的确定、考虑碎片形状体积的击中概率模型、目标容器破坏失效模式与判断准则的改进、爆炸碎片产生概率的计算方法以及目标容器破坏失效后果严重程度的确定是该领域进一步的研究与完善方向.%The adjacent vessels may be impacted and/or destroyed by blast fragments in chemical parks or plants,which leads to Domino effect accident. By analyzing and reorganizing the research on generation and projection of fragments,the impact and damage probability model of target vessels in literature and the determination of random variables during the periods of generation and projection, the impact and the damage probability model are introduced and specifically compared. The inadequacies of current research are pointed out,including that the type of fragments is not comprehensive,the criterion of fragments impacting target vessels is less accurate,the failure criterion of target vessels is too simple,the generating probability of fragment from explosion is lack,and the consequence severity of damaged vessels is lack. It is suggested that the determination of random variables of "small fragments" like safety accessories,the impact probability model considering the shape and volume of fragment,the improved damage model and criterion of failure model of target vessels,the generating probability of fragment from explosion and the consequence severity of damaged vessels should be further researched in the future.
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