基于LMDI模型的东北地区农业碳排放测度与分解

摘要

This study measured the agricultural carbon emissions in Northeast China and adopted LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) model to dissect their driving effects into carbon emission intensity,agricultural income,employment structure and gross population.The results showed that the agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning increased year by year during 1996-2013,their growth rates were 72％,63％ and 52％ respectively,and average annual growth rates were 3.23％,2.92％ and 2.51％ respectively.The total emissions and the growth rate in Heilongjiang were the largest.From the point of internal structure of agricultural carbon emissions,the carbon sources were mainly from agricultural capital and agricultural land use which accounts for 58.65％ of total emissions,followed by livestock breeding which accounts for 22.59 ％ of total emissions.In addition,the effect of carbon emission intensity had a negative impact on agricultural carbon emissions and this impact was greatest in Heilongjiang,followed by Liaoning andthen Jilin.During the period of 1996 to 2013,the agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning driven by agricultural income effect respectively increased by 14.8057,8.8317 and 8.391 million tons.However,the effect of employment structure had a positive impact on agricultural carbon emissions in Heilongjiang and Liaoning,but a significantly negative impact on that in Jilin.The effect of the gross population had a positive effect on agricultural carbon emissions in the three provinces,driving the agricultural carbon emission in Liaoning increased by 510,200 tons.%通过对东北三省的农业碳排放进行测度,并基于LMDI(对数平均迪氏分解)模型将其分解为碳排放强度、农业收入、就业结构与人口总量四种驱动效应.研究结果:(1)从东北地区的农业碳排放总量来看,1996-2013年间黑龙江、吉林和辽宁三省的农业碳排放呈现逐年上升的趋势,分别增加了0.72、0.63倍和0.52倍,午平均增长率分别为3.23％、2.92％和2.51％,黑龙江碳排放总量和增速最大;(2)从东北地区农业碳排放的内部结构来看,农用资本与农地利用带来的碳排放是东北地区的主要碳源,占比58.65％,其次是牲畜养殖碳排放,占比22.59％;(3)碳排放强度效应对农业碳排放的影响为负,且表现出黑龙江＞辽宁＞吉林的特征;1996-2013年间,农业收入效应推动黑龙江、吉林和辽宁的农业碳排放分别增加了1480.57、883.17万t和839.10万t;就业结构效应对黑龙江和辽宁的农业碳排放有正向影响,但对吉林则呈现显著的负向作用;人口总量效应对农业碳排放总量的影响均为正,驱动辽宁的农业碳排放增加了51.02万t.