以张掖市为研究区域，在借鉴国内土地生态安全研究成果的基础上，依据PSR模型，结合2001—2012年土地利用的相关数据，建立土地生态安全预警指标体系。运用RBF神经网络模型对张掖市2013—2017年土地生态安全演变趋势进行预测，并结合预警指数和警度标准对2001—2017年的安全警况进行分析。结果表明：2001—2012年张掖市土地生态安全的压力系统的警度呈波动上升趋势，状态系统和响应系统的警度呈下降趋势，2013—2017年的压力系统将逐步由“中警”转变为“重警”，状态系统将基本维持在“中警”水平，响应系统将处于“无警”状态；2001—2017年，张掖市土地生态安全警度呈略有下降态势，2013—2017年的预警指数将处于0．46左右，警度将处于“中警”状态。%For the target area of Zhangye area for research,the land ecological security early warning index system is established based on PSR model and the relevant data of land use from 2001 to 2012 .Using the RBF neural network model to Zhangye from 2013 to 2017,we predicted the evolution trend of land ecological security in combination with the analysis of the early warning alert degree of the index and standard for 2001—2017 safety warning condition .The results showed thatthe land ecological security alert degree of the pressure system for Zhangye from 2001 to 2012 exhibited a ten-dency of fluctuations rise and alert degree of the state system and response system is on the decline,and the 2013—2017 pressure system shows the pattern of“moderate warning”to“severe warning”,the state system will be maintained in the“moderate warning”in the level,the response system will be in a state of“no warning”.In 2001—2017,Zhangye alert degree of the land ecological security will be slightly decreasing,with early warning index in 2013—2017 being about 0 . 46 and warning degrees in a state of“moderate warning”.
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