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Evaluating the impacts of input and parameter uncertainty on streamflow simulations in large under-instrumented basins.

机译:评估输入量和参数不确定性对大型欠仪器盆地流模拟的影响。

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摘要

In data-poor regions around the world, particularly in less-privileged countries, hydrologists cannot always take advantage of available hydrological models to simulate a hydrological system due to the lack of reliable measurements of hydrological variables, in particular rainfall and streamflows, needed to implement and evaluate these models. Rainfall estimates obtained with remotely deployed sensors constitute an excellent source of precipitation for these basins, however they are prone to errors that can potentially affect hydrologic simulations. Concurrently, limited access to streamflow measurements does not allow a detailed representation of the system's structure through parameter estimation techniques. This dissertation presents multiple studies that evaluate the usefulness of remotely sensed products for different hydrological applications and the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to parameter uncertainty across basins with different hydroclimatic characteristics with the ultimate goal of increasing the applicability of land surface models in ungauged basins, particularly in South America. Paper 1 presents a sensitivity analysis of daily simulated streamflows to changes in model parameters along a hydroclimatic gradient. Parameters controlling the generation of surface and subsurface flow were targeted for the study. Results indicate that the sensitivity is strongly controlled by climate and that a more parsimonious version of the model could be implemented. Paper 2 explores how errors in satellite-estimated precipitation, due to infrequent satellite measurements, propagate through the simulation of a basin's hydrological cycle and impact the characteristics of peak streamflows within the basin. Findings indicate that nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle can introduce bias in simulated streamflows with error-corrupted precipitation. They also show that some characteristics of peak discharges are not conditioned by errors in satellite-estimated precipitation at a daily time step. Paper 3 evaluates the dominant sources of error in three satellite products when representing convective storms and how shifts in the location of the storm affect simulated peak streamflows in the basin. Results indicate that satellite products show some deficiencies retrieving convective processes and that a ground bias correction can mitigate these deficiencies but without sacrificing the potential for real-time hydrological applications. Finally, spatially shifted precipitation fields affect the magnitude of the peaks, however, its impact on the timing of the peaks is dampened out by the system's response at a daily time scale.
机译:在世界上数据贫乏的地区,特别是在贫困程度较低的国家,由于缺乏可靠的水文变量测量手段,尤其是降雨和水流测量,水文学家不能总是利用可用的水文模型来模拟水文系统并评估这些模型。使用远程部署的传感器获得的降雨量估算值是这些流域的绝佳降雨来源,但是它们容易产生可能影响水文模拟的误差。同时,对流量测量的有限访问不能通过参数估计技术来详细表示系统的结构。本文提出了多项研究,评估了遥感产品在不同水文应用中的实用性,以及模拟水流对具有不同水文气候特征的流域参数不确定性的敏感性,其最终目的是提高非流域盆地地表模型的适用性,特别是在南美洲。论文1提出了每日模拟流量对沿水气候梯度变化的模型参数变化的敏感性分析。研究的对象是控制地表和地下流产生的参数。结果表明,敏感性受到气候的强烈控制,并且可以实施该模型的更简化版本。论文2探索了由于卫星测量不频繁而造成的卫星估算降水误差如何通过流域水文循环的模拟传播并影响流域内峰值水流的特征。研究结果表明,水文循环中的非线性会在模拟流中引入误差,导致降水误差。他们还表明,峰值排放的某些特征不受每日时间步长的卫星估算降水误差的影响。论文3评估了代表对流风暴时三个卫星产品的主要误差源,以及风暴位置的变化如何影响盆地中的模拟峰值水流。结果表明,卫星产品在恢复对流过程中表现出一些缺陷,而地面偏置校正可以减轻这些缺陷,但又不牺牲实时水文应用的潜力。最后,空间移动的降水场会影响峰的大小,但是,它对峰时间的影响会被系统在每日时间尺度上的响应所抵消。

著录项

  • 作者

    Demaria, Eleonora M. C.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Arizona.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Arizona.;
  • 学科 Hydrology.;Remote Sensing.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2010
  • 页码 182 p.
  • 总页数 182
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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