Three scenarios of rural land use: A hypothetical comparison of traditional and nontraditional rural land use of a mainland area adjacent to a barrier island in the southeastern United States

摘要

In the past, the land use of the isolated rural mainland area adjacent to the Sea Islands of South Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern Florida was traditional. Forestry and agriculture predominated. Recently, however, the newfound popularity of these barrier islands has placed pressure upon the rural areas to develop, becoming recreational and residential in nature. As land on the islands becomes scarcer and more expensive, the pressure to develop will increase and the land use of the rural mainland will change from traditional to nontraditional. In some parts of the coastal mainland, these alterations are occurring even now.;This study compares some of the possible consequences of change from traditional to nontraditional land usage of the coastal mainland in the Sea Islands area. Three 30-year scenarios of land use are described for a study area which is ideally situated for change. Then, several impacts that could result from the land use described in each scenario are analyzed.;In Scenario I, land-use change does not occur. The property continues to function as a pine plantation throughout the foreseeable future. Scenario II describes the changes which would occur if the study area were to develop, beginning in 1991, at the same rate as has been experienced in Southern Beaufort County, South Carolina, during recent years. The third scenario adds mining to the other two land uses by describing a pattern of change if the titanium deposits located on the site were to be mined in a typical manner and at a typical rate.;The salient conclusion which may be drawn from this study is that land owners of the rural mainlands adjacent to the Sea Islands, when faced with a proposal for tourist/residential development, likely will choose that land use. The difference in land values between nontraditional and traditional land uses is so great that the owners probably will opt for development which will bring with it a different set of impacts from that of the traditional land uses.