Determining characteristics of the forest industry in the twenty-first century: A Delphi study with implications for agricultural education programs

摘要

The primary purpose of this study was to determine the characteristics of the forest industry in the year 2000 in order to recommend curriculum content for agricultural education programs of the future. Specific objectives were to determine: the general characteristics of the forest industry in the year 2000, a demographic profile of opinion leaders in the forest industry, if the Delphi technique could be used to achieve consensus among forestry experts, the work force requirements of the forest industry, and the educational requirements of those employed in the forest industry in the year 2000.;This was a national study using a two-round modified Delphi technique. The panel of experts were nominated by the participants of the 1990 Society of American Foresters Annual Meeting, the executive secretaries of the private state forestry associations, and the directors of the public state forestry agencies. The 33 most frequently nominated experts were invited to participate in the study. A structured Delphi instrument consisting of 85 items on a Likert-type scale was developed from the literature. The instrument was reviewed for content and face validity by an 11-member panel.;Consensus was achieved on an item if at least 60% of the respondents were in agreement and the composite score fell in the agree or disagree range. The standard deviations and interquartile ranges indicated that the central tendency was a movement toward consensus. The responses were found to be very stable from round 1 to round 2 as indicated by the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient procedure, the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test, and the tenacity rates.;It was concluded that: (1) The forest industry will grow and change rapidly into the 21st century with increasing emphasis on protecting the environment through ecosystem management. (2) Opinion leaders in the forest industry can best determine curriculum content for forestry programs of the future. (3) The Delphi technique was effective in determining consensus among forestry experts regarding future characteristics of the industry. (4) There will be increased employment opportunities and a corresponding need for training programs in forestry. (5) There is a need to continually update the forestry curriculum in agricultural education programs. Thirty-one content items were identified as essential for inclusion in the agricultural education curriculum.