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Uncertainty in ecological simulation modeling: Applications to conservation of endangered species and forest growth.

机译:生态模拟建模的不确定性:在保护濒危物种和森林生长中的应用。

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摘要

A population viability analysis (PVA) is applied to the endangered neotropical migrant bird species black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapillus) employing the model VORTEX. Results show that this species is likely to go extinct in about 18 years if no conservation measures are taken. To meet the conservation goals, the rate of fecundity has to be increased up to 2.50 young fledged per female per year, while maintaining carrying capacity at the current level over the next century. A framework for management and monitoring of endangered species from a management-unit point of view is proposed as well. This approach is to be applied in conjunction with PVA. The black-capped vireo at Fort Hood (Texas) is employed as a case study. Results indicate that population size is expected to increase at Fort Hood from 1995 to 1996. The effect of error (uncertainty) in PVA models parameter estimates on the establishment of conservation management objectives is also analyzed. When uncertainty is accounted for in the black-capped vireo PVA, the acceptable conservation goals are only achieved under a fecundity of 3.50 young fledged per female per year.; An efficient method is presented to obtain uncertainty information and error budgets in process models. Examples are conducted employing a process forest growth model for red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.) and VORTEX for the black-capped vireo. It is concluded that the proposed method provides a valuable means to analyze the uncertainty of large or computationally-slow process models. A sampling optimization procedure is presented as well. Uncertainty is also assessed for the management-unit conservation model applied to the black-capped vireo at Fort Hood. An example of optimization of sample size allocation is also conducted for this last case.; Finally, a framework is proposed to employ process models in hypothesis testing of ecological scenarios when external entities either interact or do not interact with treatment entities. The analysis of the effect of acidic deposition on the site index of a red pine stand is employed to illustrate this methodology. It is argued that these are valuable methods for conducting process model-based experiments.
机译:使用VORTEX模型对濒危的新热带候鸟鸟类黑冠病毒( Vireo atricapillus )进行种群生存力分析(PVA)。结果表明,如果不采取任何保护措施,该物种很可能在18年后灭绝。为了实现保护目标,必须将生育率提高到每名女性每年2.50只幼雏,同时在下个世纪保持当前的承载能力。还提出了从管理单位的角度管理和监测濒危物种的框架。该方法将与PVA结合使用。案例研究以福特胡德堡(德克萨斯州)的黑顶贝雷奥为例。结果表明,从1995年至1996年,胡德堡的人口规模有望增加。分析了PVA模型参数估计中的误差(不确定性)对建立保护管理目标的影响。如果在黑头病毒PVA中考虑了不确定性,则只有在每名雌性每年3.50只幼雏的繁殖力下才能实现可接受的保护目标。提出了一种在过程模型中获取不确定性信息和误差预算的有效方法。使用赤松( Pinus resinosa Ait。)的过程森林生长模型和黑顶vireo的VORTEX进行示例。结论是,该方法为分析大型或计算缓慢的过程模型的不确定性提供了有价值的手段。还介绍了采样优化过程。还评估了应用于胡德堡黑封顶音响师的管理单位保护模型的不确定性。对于这最后一种情况,还进行了样本量分配优化的示例。最后,提出了一个框架,当外部实体与处理实体交互或不交互时,在生态情景的假设测试中采用过程模型。酸沉降对赤松林位点指数影响的分析被用来说明这种方法。有人认为这些是进行基于过程模型的实验的有价值的方法。

著录项

  • 作者

    Parysow, Pablo Fabian.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.;
  • 学科 Agriculture Forestry and Wildlife.; Biology Biostatistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1998
  • 页码 206 p.
  • 总页数 206
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 森林生物学;生物数学方法;
  • 关键词

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