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Four essays on evolutionary market share dynamics: A computational approach.

机译:关于演化市场份额动态的四篇文章:一种计算方法。

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The Dissertation uses evolutionary theory, non-linear dynamics and computer simulation techniques to explore the feedback between market structure and innovation.;Chapter I sets the stage by reviewing the connection between industry market structure, firm size, and innovation from a theoretical and an empirical point of view. The conclusion is that the non-linear and complex relationship between these variables, requires a theoretical framework which views variety between firms as a dynamic outcome of the competitive process, and a quantitative framework which can explore the complex non-linear dynamics.;Chapter II constructs a model which attempts to reproduce empirical patterns in firm size distributions, by embodying assumptions from different industry life-cycle studies on the relationship between firm size and innovation. The main conclusions are that: (a) depending on the parameter configuration, positive feedback between firm size and innovation can lead either to a competitive or to a monopolistic market structure, but with (final) firm ranking always predictable from knowledge of the initial efficiency levels; and (b) negative feedback instead leads to instability in market patterns and unpredictability in firm ranking. This result is of Particular interest since writings on multiple equilibria by Arthur (1989) have focused only on positive feedback. Chapter III repeats the same exercise but with a stochastic cost equation, which allows random idiosyncratic events to be included in a model of industry evolution. Here the conclusion is that although positive feedback between firm size and innovation still leads to a concentrated market structure, the process towards concentration is much more turbulent and ranking less predictable.;Chapter IV connects the issue of market share instability to the issue of stock price volatility. The model finds that the assumptions from the traditional "efficient market model" are not able to reproduce the empirical patterns in the relationship between stock prices and fundamentals. To better understand the "actual" relationship between market share instability and stock price volatility, a statistical analysis is performed on the data. The insights gained in Chapters II and III regarding the relationship between market share instability, market concentration, firm size and innovation, are used to interpret the empirical results.
机译:论文运用进化论,非线性动力学和计算机仿真技术研究了市场结构与创新之间的反馈关系。第一章从理论和实证角度回顾了行业市场结构,企业规模与创新之间的联系,为这一阶段做准备。观点看法。结论是,这些变量之间的非线性和复杂关系需要一个将企业之间的多样性视为竞争过程的动态结果的理论框架,以及一个可以探索复杂的非线性动力学的定量框架。构建一个模型,通过体现来自不同行业生命周期研究的关于企业规模与创新之间关系的假设,尝试重现企业规模分布中的经验模式。主要结论是:(a)根据参数配置,公司规模与创新之间的正反馈可以导致竞争或垄断市场结构,但是(最终)公司排名始终可以根据对初始效率的了解来预测。水平; (b)负面反馈反而会导致市场格局的不稳定和公司排名的不可预测性。由于亚瑟(1989)关于多重均衡的著作只关注积极反馈,因此这一结果特别令人关注。第三章重复了相同的练习,但使用了随机成本方程,该方程允许将随机特质事件包括在行业演化模型中。在此得出的结论是,尽管公司规模与创新之间的积极反馈仍会导致市场结构集中,但集中化的过程更加动荡,排名难以预测。第四章将市场份额不稳定问题与股票价格问题联系起来挥发性。该模型发现,传统“有效市场模型”中的假设无法重现股票价格与基本面之间关系的经验模式。为了更好地理解市场份额不稳定和股价波动之间的“实际”关系,对数据进行了统计分析。在第二章和第三章中获得的关于市场份额不稳定,市场集中度,企业规模和创新之间关系的见解被用来解释经验结果。

著录项

  • 作者单位

    New School for Social Research.;

  • 授予单位 New School for Social Research.;
  • 学科 Economics Commerce-Business.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 219 p.
  • 总页数 219
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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