A deterministic model to assess the impact of HAART in Sub-Saharan countries. An application to Botswana

摘要

Recently news about the severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian flu viruses has caused significant panic in many countries. These viruses, for Europe still very much a theoretical danger obscure the much more immediate danger of the human immune deficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome, HIV/AIDS. We develop a deterministic compartmental simulation model to assess the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) and other interventions in sub-Saharan countries. We calibrate this model using data from Botswana. We also include a cost-effectiveness analysis. To our knowledge our model is the first deterministic model to include all the important factors of the HIV/AIDS transmission and a dynamic calculation of the life expectancy. The model shows that HAART alone, at the current implementation level, cannot significantly impact the number of HIV/AIDS infected individuals in the long term. The association of HAART with the treatment of other sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) shows the maximal cost-effectiveness under the current model settings.