Dynamic Analysis of the Long-Distance Telecom Bubble

摘要

It is well known that the long distance telecom service providers suffered heavy damage in the aftermath of the telecom bubble. What is it about the telecom industry that drove participants to fall victim of the bubble dynamics despite historical understanding of the destructive consequences of past bubbles? Was the bubble simply the result of a "perfect storm", or was it an inevitable reflection of industry dynamics? To what degree did the bubble arise from irrational exuberance and misperception of demand growth, and to what degree did it simply reflect pathological emergent behavior arising from individually rational actors? The answer to such questions are interesting historically, but may also help provide insights for regulators and enterprises. The objective of the analysis described in this paper is firstly to use system dynamics to characterize the telecom bubble phenomena, secondly to analyze and understand the mechanism of the telecom bubble, and thirdly to utilize the model to make preliminary recommendations that may help to lower the risk of similar phenomena in the future. The model provided insight into the impact of factors such as technological advancement, misinformation concerning demand growth, competition among network service providers, and the impact of demand forecasting techniques.