Endogenous conduction mechanism of economic cycle fluctuation and economic vortex

摘要

Faced with various complex unfavorable factors at home and abroad, how to realize the stable and sustainable growth of the national economy has become an important problem to be solved urgently. Based on the assumption of "continuous medium" and "fluid property" of the macro-structure of an economy, a nonlinear model of economic fluctuation is established by analyzing the endogenous conduction mechanism. It is found that there are three transmission mechanisms in an economy: multiplier effect, inflation (contraction) effect and industry correlation effect. They have a nonlinear amplifying effect on external shocks, which will cause continuous deformation of the economic growth curve and unbalance the industrial structure. Then a certain kind of chaotic phenomenon is produced, resulting in an economic vortex. Economic vortex refers to the "rotation" phenomenon in the process of economic operation, which can not only cause the loss of social welfare, but also cause the overheating of the economy, leading to the outbreak of economic crisis. Therefore, the paper puts forward the methods of industrial structure optimization, such as mending and integrating industrial chain, extending industrial chain and constructing industrial network, which can not only expand the analysis perspective of economic cycle theory, it can also promote the smooth operation of the economy.