A MODEL ENGINE FOR THE SIMULATION OF 'LOCK-IN,' 'BREAK-OUT,' AND THE DISSEMINATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL CULTURE

摘要

How are technological innovations changing the patterns of their cultural diffusion in socio-economic networks? By varying the parameters in Arthur's (1988) model of competing technologies with "lock-in," Leydesdorff & Van den Besselaar (1998) were able to specify conditions for "break-out." In this study, the simulation of these phenomena is extended with a spatial component. Cellular automata enable us to show the regional effects of "lock-in" on the screen in terms of (potentially dominant) colours. The "lock-in and lock-out" effects can be combined with local learning, network effects at each moment, or more complex dynamics with selection pressures at the network level (e.g., cultural dissemination). Recursive and interaction terms can be declared separately and piecemeal in the construction of a non-linear model of technological developments and innovation. The model can thus remain theoretically transparent, while the model engine can be made comprehensive for the demonstration of the non-linear dynamics of communications in actor-networks. In addition to showing the effects of emerging dimensions, I shall focus on combining Axelrod's (1997) simulations of "cultural dissemination" with the noted effects of "lock-in". Among other things, it can be shown that cultural assimilation coevolves with and partially anticipates the dominance of a single technology.