Short-term wind power prediction and error analysis

摘要

The prediction accuracy of wind power is important to the power system operation. Based on BP neural network used to forecast directly and time-series method used to forecast indirectly, the output wind power prediction of 4 hours in advance was studied in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance of direct prediction is better, and the reason for that was analyzed in the paper. Finally, error analysis of prediction was researched. Comprehensive evaluation of prediction error which contains horizontal and longitudinal error evaluation was proposed.