Application of Mixture Priors to Assessment of Performance

摘要

A "mixture prior" offers significant advantages in performance assessment, compared to diffuse priors previously considered for this application. In particular, a discrete mixture of natural conjugate priors gives a simple and relatively realistic way to model past performance while allowing the possibility of detecting changes in performance. For a range of possible data in a specific example, the behaviour of the resulting posterior is compared to that of posteriors resulting from more traditional priors.