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Optimized Monte Carlo Simulations for System Reliability Analysis

机译:用于系统可靠性分析的优化蒙特卡罗模拟

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Within the reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS) analysis, it is of great interest the study of highly reliable systems. It is well-known that, through the Monte Carlo (MC) method, the study of such systems has to be tackled by a variance reduction technique; here the so-called importance sampling (IS) has been considered. As far as the IS technique is concerned, we point out that the issue of optimization is still challenging and it is typically left to the MC user experience, hence one has usually to make many attempts before achieving an advantageous biasing. The present paper focuses on the unreliability estimate of systems in which failure events occur independently and shows a criterion allowing to get the set of optimizing parameters.
机译:在可靠性,可用性,可维护性和安全性(RAMS)分析中,对高度可靠的系统的研究非常感兴趣。众所周知,通过蒙特卡罗(MC)方法,必须通过方差减少技术来解决这些系统的研究;这里已经考虑了所谓的重要性抽样(是)。就技术而言,我们指出,优化问题仍然具有挑战性,并且通常留给MC用户体验,因此通常在实现有利的偏置之前经常进行许多尝试。本文重点介绍了失败事件独立发生的系统的不可靠性估计,并且显示了允许获得优化参数集的标准。

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