The influence of the human error on naval accidents. A Fuzzy logic approach

摘要

The dynamic of many naval accident (or near misses) that happened in the past have showed the relevance of human behaviour that often have originated or got worse the incidental conditions The analysis of these events had produced regulations, prescriptions and procedures to limit the possibility of a naval accident occurrence that can be originated from a human error. The problem is most studied because more one third of the total naval accidents, every year, are caused by a human errors. The parameters that have to be defined to solve this kind of problem have to be searched in the studies of human behaviour and of his failure causes. Usually the most important human factors are called Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs), particularly as regards naval accidents can be: error of judgment; improper watchkeeping or look out; ship handling; failure to comply with regulations; misconduct or negligence; lack of knowledge; failure to obtain ship's position or course; overloading; fatigue; inexperience; drugs and alcohol; physiological. The three most important categories of naval accident can be summarized in: the human factor; environmental conditions (meteorological conditions, morphology of the coast); the technical factors (navigational system failures). In 90% of naval accidents are been relevant two third above mentioned (human, environmental, and technical factors); rarely just one of the three categories have contributed negatively at the beginning and evolution of naval accident, when it is occurred seven times out of ten was caused by a human error.