Slope failure prediction using a spatial probabilistic modeling approach integrated with Monte Carlo simulation and GIS

摘要

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed, and applied in the landslide prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water level.