Risk analysis of systems with system anomalies and common failures

摘要

The accident analysis shows that the accident is caused by complex effects of structure feature, human peculiarities, control and surroundings. As usually accidents or catastrophes are induced by 3 - 6 different common or simultaneously errors or failures. The probability of error or failure appearance depends on the system parameter scattering called as system anomalies. The probabilities of second, third, etc error appearance are increased by system anomalies and errors coming out earlier. The empirical density functions of the system parameter distributions are characterised by the special additive extra distributions at their tails. These tail distributions probably play the most important role in appearance of the rarely occurrences. The presently used risk analysis methods do not take into account the system anomalies and common errors effects.