Modeling China's forest resources and timber supply

摘要

A forest resources and timber supply model with variables including forest stock volume, timber harvest volume and forest area was established. The regression results of the model indicate that China's plantation accelerates the growth rate of forest stock volume while forest tenure reform has negative effect on that; additionally, there has a positive correlation between timber supply and GDP, yet timber price has no significant effect on timber supply. By use of this model, China's forest resources and timber supply trend is predicted. The forecast results show that China's forest stock volume would increase about 380 million m3 and timber supply would increase by 3.5% annually over 2009–2020. Overall, although China's timber supply would maintain an increasing trend, China will still face the problem of structural imbalances and will continue to rely on import on aspects of large-diameter timber.