Development prediction of modern logistics industry in Henan province and its dynamic analysis

摘要

In order to scientific grasp the characteristics and trend of the logistics industry development in Henan province, in this paper, we have constructed a group of grey predictive model and a group of buffer operator model of the logistics industry in Henan province and have made comparative analysis of model predictive accuracy, and done the dynamic analysis of the logistics industry development, selecting high predictive accuracy models to forecast the future development trend of logistics industry in the next ten years. Results show that the modern logistics industry in Henan province has been a steady growth in overall, the main growth points of the logistics industry development in Henan province are roadway miles (km), roadway (one hundred million ton/km), freight turnover (one hundred million ton/km) and waterway(one hundred million ton), and the growth points for the future development of logistics industry in Henan province are the roadway freight volume, roadway passenger volume and waterway freight volume.