Climatic Change and Flooding Risk Assessment for Greater Moncton Area, New Brunswick, Canada

摘要

The Greater Moncton Area is a highly urbanized area situated on the Petitcodiac Estuary that discharges into the Bay of Fundy - home to the highest tides in the world with a tidal range of over 14 m. This paper is based on a project completed by AMEC as part of the Regional Adaptation Collaborative Funding Program for Adaptation to Climate Change. The purpose of this project is to provide the Greater Moncton Area with a flood risk assessment based on impacts of climate change, to identify vulnerable infrastructure, and to recommend adaptation measures. The primary flooding risk for the project area results from extreme high water levels in the estuary, which is a combined result of six components: (1) global sea level rise due to climate change; (2) land subsidence; (3) tide; (4) storm surge; and (5) freshwater flow. To determine the total flooding risk, a unique methodology specific to the region was developed which addressed how the parameters are affected by climate change, their dependence on each other, and the timing and coincidence of the underlying processes. The study provided flood level projections for ore-determined planning horizons.