A statistical approach to predict flight delay using gradient boosted decision tree

摘要

Supervised machine learning algorithms have been used extensively in different domains of machine learning like pattern recognition, data mining and machine translation. Similarly, there has been several attempts to apply the various supervised or unsupervised machine learning algorithms to the analysis of air traffic data. However, no attempts have been made to apply Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, one of the famous machine learning tools to analyse those air traffic data. This paper investigates the effectiveness of this successful paradigm in the air traffic delay prediction tasks. By combining this regression model based on the machine learning paradigm, an accurate and sturdy prediction model has been built which enables an elaborated analysis of the patterns in air traffic delays. Gradient Boosted Decision Tree has shown a great accuracy in modeling sequential data. With the help of this model, day-to-day sequences of the departure and arrival flight delays of an individual airport can be predicted efficiently. In this paper, the model has been implemented on the Passenger Flight on-time Performance data taken from U.S. Department of Transportation to predict the arrival and departure delays in flights. It shows better accuracy as compared to other methods.