Agent Based Modeling of Intergovernmental Decision Making: How Institutional Rules Generate Basins of Attraction in Funding Transportation Projects

摘要

A Pattern-Oriented, Agent Based Model (ABM) of an intergovernmental network ispresented to demonstrate an application of complex systems and computational modeling in realworld transportation policy implementation processes. This ABM simulates the dynamics ofintergovernmental decision making that is deployed for transportation project prioritizationprocesses. The ABM simulates baseline and alternate intergovernmental institutional rulestructures and assesses their impacts on financial investment flows from federal to state, regionaland local scale governments. The current version of the ABM is limited to simulating roadwayprojects in the state of Vermont that are primarily funded through US Surface TransportationProgram and Interstate Maintenance Program. Multiple focus groups, individual interviews, andanalysis of federal, state and regional scale transportation project and program data was used tocalibrate this ABM. In particular, this ABM demonstrates how institutional rules set by federal,state and regional government agencies generate “basins of attraction” in funding roadwayprojects. The results from experimental simulations are presented to test system-wide effects ofalternate institutional designs on the differential emergence of roadway project prioritizationpatterns and funding allocations across regions and local towns.