Analysis of Route Choice Behavior Based on Travel Time Reliability

摘要

In this study, travel time reliability was incorporated into the route choice decision-making process based on the prospect theory. A mathematical model was proposed to reveal the impact of travel time reliability on the route choice behavior. Under the condition of given travel time reliability, we can calculate the value of reference point. The proposed methods involves analytical model and stochastic user equilibrium model based on the prospect theory. Finally, by studying the different reliability conditions, the change in the value of prospect and the flow on routes were found, and a reliability sensitivity analysis was conducted. Using a numerical example, we present the whole analytical process.