ANALYSIS OF SEMI-DISTRIBUTED AND GLOBAL HYDROLOGICAL MODELS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL BASINS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EFFECTS OF EXTREME HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA

摘要

The progressive change in weather conditions in the world, have caused an increase in the frequency and severity of hydrometeorological events, an example is what happened in the last 20 years in the southeast of Mexico, which left huge economic, social and environmental losses due to flooding, in addition to this problem, the lack of hydrometeorological information for the development of hydrological modeling. Therefore, it is necessary to have tools that allow decision making science-based, such as global hydrological models (GHM) currently a way to assess the effect of climate change on the hydrology of a watershed. The objective of this study was to adapt the Canadian GHM (MOHYSE) to tropical conditions, and determine the efficiency of its hydrological response through the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. Additionally, compared with a semi-distributed hydrological model (SDHM) to determine which of the models is more accurate to hydrograph observed in the study area. The results indicate that both models fit properly to tropical conditions, having MOHYSE a coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe and Pearson correlation (0.5, 0.9) higher than MDSH coefficient (0.4, 0.8).