Identification and quantitative assessment of permafrost hazards to land resources in the central Part of Yamal Peninsula

摘要

In the north of Western Siberia the air temperature increase trend is one of the greatest in Russia for the 1960-95 yy. period (0.05°C/year-up summer and 0.07°C/year-up winter). During 1965-2003 the regional trend of the ground temperature was 0.02°C/year (Pavlov, 2008). Locally the ground temperature response to the climate change can be quite different depending on superficial landscape and hydrogeological conditions. Completed investigations included the numerical modeling of permafrost reaction to the climate changes. In so doing the "nontemperature" climate factors of heat exchange through the surface have been taken into account also. The different climate factors were put into model as linear trends to predict the permafrost condition in the next 50 years. The climate scenarios were obtained from observation data of different duration. This modeling helps to evaluate possible land resource damages from the natural gas field exploration and to develop the effective environmental program including the land reclamation. The results will be used at the design, construction processes and environmental monitoring stages of the land reclamation.