NUMERICAL MODELLING OF POTENTIAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON RATES OF SOFT-CLIFF RECESSION, NORTHEAST NORFOLK, UK

摘要

Regional, long-term changes in shore morphology were examined using the process-based numerical model SCAPE (Soft Cliff And Platform Erosion model). Key features of the model include an emphasis on providing appropriate representations of the main interactions that occur within ‘whole’ eroding coastal systems, and the stability that the model achieves through negative feedback, particularly between the interaction of beach and shore platform. In this study, comparison of model predictions with measured cliff-recession rates provided validation over a period of more than 100 years. Scenario-testing over the period 2000-2100 suggest that cliff erosion rates in northeast Norfolk may be particularly sensitive to increased rates of sea-level rise (SLR), although the effects are not linear alongshore, whereas changes in offshore wave direction and height have moderate and minor impacts respectively. Comparison of climate-change impacts with impacts arising from hypothetical management scenarios indicates that human decisions will continue to exert a fundamental control on coastal evolution over the next 100 years.