A NEW MODEL ON FUTURE RATIONAL SCALE OF POPULATION IN SHANGHAI

摘要

Shanghai is located at the intersection of the mouth of Yangtze River and the coastline of east China, and is a leading city historically and contemporarily in economy, finance and trade in China. Its leading position is even more reinforced by its location as a leading economic giant down Yangtze Basin. In the context of sustainable development, the population that Shanghai acting as a leading city may accommodate in the future or its future rational scale of population is an important parameter that needs to be primarily determined in the Population, Resource, Environment and Development (PRED) system of this region. Similarly, the rational scale of population of any other region along Yangtze Basin should be easily decided. In this paper, the definition of the optimum population and the concept of rational scale of city population are distinguished and their correlations are covered at the beginning of this article. Then the historical and current studies by other scholars at home and abroad on the rational scale of population in Shanghai are reviewed. A new mathematical model on the rational scale of population, which is based on Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP Per Capita (GPC), is formulated in this paper. By using this model, the rational scale of population in Shanghai on the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 is forecasted and calculated respectively. This mathematical model is also highly applicable to other regions.