STUDY ON MACROECONOMIC MODELING FOR FORECASTING AND DEVELOPMENT PLANNING

摘要

This paper focuses on macroeconomic modeling and meta-synthesis for medium- and long-term macroeconomic forecasting and planning. Through the meta-synthesis system methodology, a macroeconomic intelligent forecasting models system (MEIFS), in which the core is input-output analysis (IOA), artificial neural networks (ANN), and optimization techniques, is established. The forecasting methods compose of input-output models, artificial neural networks models and systems optimization methods. While understanding forecasting methodologies and their use is interesting for academic purpose, the real test comes in their applicability in practice and their impact on planning and decision-making. The proposed forecasting system has been applied to forecast main economic indicators of certain region in "the Tenth Five-Year" period, and the forecasted results are adopted by the regional government plan agency to formulate "the Tenth Five-Year" planning.