Production Planning Forecasting Under Uncertainty Using Possibility Theory

摘要

Uncertainty has always been inherent to forecasting activities, but is usually implicitly considered. When taken into account, it is managed on a long time horizon, at the highest level of the planning process. Nevertheless, uncertainty on the occurrence of orders may nowadays also be present in short term planning and scheduling, especially for subcontractors or for companies that manufacture short life products. A method allowing to take into account the uncertainty on the occurrence of the orders in scheduling has been suggested in. In order to validate the method, a range of tests has been performed and is described here. Their purpose is to tune the different overbooking parameters in order to obtain a production planning forecast under uncertainty that can be as close as possible to the final schedule composed of firm orders.