ADVANCED AIR POLLUTION MODELS AND THEIR APPLICATION TO RISK AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT

摘要

A large number of risks, with which society is confronted at present and will even more be exposed to in the course of future industrial development and growth of agricultural activity due to increasing population worldwide, is caused by anthropogenic emissions of primary air pollutants and precursors of secondary ones. Numerical model systems simulating chemistry and transport of minor constituents in the atmosphere have been developed which have mainly been used for air quality analysis in the past and are now more and more converted to forecast tools for the atmospheric environment. Such air quality (AQ) models have the potential to be applied with fast response to emergency cases like chemical or power plant accidents. Comprehensive assessment of risks and possible impacts can be carried out and used for mitigation or prevention of hazardous impacts. Requirements for the design of advanced AQ models for the treatment of such problems are discussed and some examples demonstrating the spectrum of possible applications are presented. Necessary steps for future improvements of model design and performance are briefly mentioned.