The Innovator's Non-Dilemma:The Case of Next-Generation Lithography

摘要

This paper examines R&D leadership of incumbents when an industry encounters arntechnological discontinuity. Confronted with a discontinuity in the lithographyrnproduction module, leading firms in the semiconductor industry have initiated nextgenerationrnlithography projects, characterized by unprecedented cooperation. Previousrnstudies have emphasized how entrants might displace incumbents when incumbents focusrntoo narrowly on satisfying the needs of present customers, rather than pursuingrninnovation that will ensure market leadership over time. This paper distinguishes betweenrnthis "dilemma" faced by incumbents and cases where the incumbents spearheadrninnovation on the technology frontier thus enabling future product generations. Thisrnresearch establishes the need for incumbent leadership and analyzes how the innovatorsrnmanage four areas of uncertainty: leadership, preemption, performance, and industryrnadoption. The implications of cooperative R&D in overcoming these uncertainties arernexamined for firms and consumers alike. Case studies of three next-generationrnlithography projects led by Bell Labs, IBM, and Intel illuminate these forces that underliernincumbent-led cooperative R&D.rnWe adapt the Salop circle model to introduce the concept of "technology spheres" tornrepresent families of technologies. The technology spheres model allows us to analyzernthe implications of inter-firm cooperation for the payoffs to both firms and consumers ofrnthe semiconductor devices that would be produced with the NGL systems. This modelrnillustrates how cooperation may be curtailed if it encroaches on firm-level returns. Thisrnsuggests a possible role for public contributions to R&D on the technological frontier ifrnthe incumbents who possess the expertise are unwilling to cooperate.