Construction and application of anti-dumping early-warning system: Case study on Sino-US steel trade

摘要

China is the world's biggest victim of anti-dumping cases. In order to create a good trade environment, an early-warning system should be established. This paper built a warning index system, which is composed of three first-grade indexes include macro-economic environment, trade security and material industry. Then adopting econometric and principal component analysis to determine the weight to each index, achieved the comprehensive scoring equation. Apply with the general model to calculate the range of alarm index, and use interval analysis method of warning sign to define the risk level. Finally, take the Sino-US steel trade for example to verify the early-warning system. The predict data, which match the realistic data perfectly. Moreover, the result shows the material industry injury is the significant reasons for U.S. launching anti-dumping to China. The precise and valid prediction of the early-warning system shows it will inevitably make contribute to the specific area.